Real-World Flight Data Shows Continued Need for Social Distancing, Despite COVID-19 Vaccination Programs

According to a study conducted by scientists from Reykjavik University, the University of Lyon, the University of Southern Denmark and the University of Naples Federico II, only the current vaccination programs will have a limited effect on stopping the second wave of COVID infections in the U.S. the Nature Group journal Scientific Reports today (May 24, 2021). The findings suggest that strict social distancing and other non-pharmaceutical practices are still needed to end the ongoing second wave in the US and prevent another one from emerging.

Dr. Anna Sigridur Islind and Dr. Maria Oskarsdottir used field flight data to show that there is still a need for social distance to curb the spread of COVID in the US. Credit: Dr. Islind

The study brought real-world human mobility data into a mathematical model previously used to predict the second wave of COVID in the US. As a proxy for global human mobility across regions in the US, the authors use data from the OpenSky Network, a non-profit organization that provides open access to real air traffic control data for research purposes. The mathematical model, previously developed by the authors, was first tested and calibrated using data on the course of the pandemic in the first wave. Using the model on flight control data, they show that given current US mobility and vaccination coverage, the vaccination campaign alone will not stop the ongoing wave of infections.

Dr. Anna Sigridur Islind and Dr. Maria Oskarsdottir, assistant professors in the Department of Computer Science at Reykjavik University, led the work with the OpenSky data. “Our analysis clearly shows that constant vigilance is required with regard to social distancing and other non-pharmaceutical methods in the US, as not everyone can be vaccinated at once and because there is a significant time lag between vaccination and immunity,” said Dr. Islind.

Dr. Anna Sigridur Islind and Dr. Maria Oskarsdottir used field flight data to show that there is still a need for social distance to curb the spread of COVID in the US. Credit: Golli

“Our results underscore the importance of using real-world human mobility data related to the pandemic and to inform public health strategies. This is especially important in a pandemic as complex as COVID and which has had such an uneven public health response, with vast variations in vaccination coverage, social regulation and other measures. The flight control data is very useful because it contains real-world information about interstate travel speeds and thus provides a valuable broader picture of human mobility at a large scale, ”added Dr. Oskarsdottir adds.

Reference: May 26, 2021, Scientific Reports.
DOI: 10.1038 / s41598-021-90539-2