Online COVID-19 Risk Calculator Shows Your Personalized Risk of Infection

The Immunization Coalition, in collaboration with Australian researchers, has launched a calculator to help people understand their risk factors for COVID-19 infection and vaccination.

The tool’s three co-principal investigators are virologist Dr. Kirsty Short of the University of Queensland, CoRiCal instigator of Flinders University Associate Professor John Litt, and General Practitioner Dr. Andrew Baird.

dr. Kirsty Short said the Immunization Coalition COVID-19 Risk Calculator (CoRiCal) was an online tool to support primary care physicians and community members in their discussions about the benefits and risks of COVID-19 vaccines.

“This tool is really designed to help people make an informed decision about vaccination based on their current circumstances and also see their risk of getting COVID-19 under different transmission scenarios,” said Dr. short.

“Users can access the tool and enter their age, gender, community transmission and vaccination status to find out their personalized risk assessment.

“For example, you can determine your chance of being infected with COVID-19 versus your chance of dying from the disease.

“You can also find out your chance of developing an atypical blood clot from the AstraZeneca vaccine and view this data in the context of other recognizable risks — such as being struck by lightning or winning OzLotto.”

The CoRiCal Covid Risk Calculator is in its pilot phase but will be continuously updated in line with the latest health and scientific advice, including risk assessments of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, pre-existing medical conditions such as obesity and diabetes, and long-term COVID.

The CoRiCal project involved a team of primary care physicians, medical scientists, public health physicians, epidemiologists and statisticians.

Associate Professor John Litt, a member of the immunization coalition’s scientific advisory committee, said he hoped CoRiCal would help GPs save time and make an accurate assessment of the individual’s risk of COVID-19 or any of the vaccines.

“GPs spend a lot of time explaining the risks of COVID-19 and the different vaccines to their patients,” said Dr. litt.

“An accurate, evidence-based tool that is transparent and non-professional should assist GPs in their task of facilitating COVID vaccination for their patients.”

Melbourne-based family physician Dr. Andrew Baird said CoRiCal was suitable for booster doses, new viral strains, new vaccines, younger age groups, international markets and even other infectious diseases.

“It involves risks using simple bar charts so it’s easy to compare the risks for different outcomes related to COVID-19 and vaccines,” said Dr. Baird.

“CoRiCal could help Australia fully vaccinate 90 percent, 95 percent or even more of the population aged 16 and over.

“The higher the vaccination rate of the population, the better it will be for individuals, communities, mental health, health services and the country.”

dr. Baird said that while CoRiCal was developed for primary care physicians and other health professionals, it was important that people could easily access this information online without consultation.

CoRiCal is a collaboration between the Immunization Coalition, UQ, Flinders University, La Trobe University and Queensland University of Technology (QUT).

Risk calculations in CoRiCal are based on a modeling framework developed by Professor Colleen Lau and Dr Helen Mayfield of the UQ School of Public Health, and Professor Kerrie Mengersen of QUT.

Go here to the CoRiCal tool.