COVID-19 Fallout Threatens Global Coffee Industry

The socioeconomic effects of COVID-19 are likely to lead to another severe production crisis in the coffee industry, according to a study led by Rutgers University. Credit: Zack Guido

The socioeconomic effects of COVID-19 are likely to lead to another severe production crisis in the coffee industry, according to a study led by Rutgers University.

The study, which appears in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, involved researchers from the University of Arizona, University of Hawaii at Hilo, CIRAD, Santa Clara University, Purdue University West Lafayette and University of Exeter.

“Any major impact in the global coffee industry will seriously affect millions of people around the world, including the coffee retail market here in the United States,” said lead author Kevon Rhiney, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography at Rutgers-New Brunswick. .

Coffee is one of the most traded agricultural commodities in the world, supporting the livelihoods of approximately 100 million people worldwide, especially in low-income countries. But the industry has long faced many tensions, including institutional reforms, price volatility, extreme climate and plant diseases and pests. And in the past year, COVID-19 has become a new threat to the coffee industry by acting as a possible trigger for renewed epidemics of coffee leaf rust, the world’s most serious coffee plant disease.

Coffee is one of the most traded agricultural commodities in the world, supporting the livelihoods of approximately 100 million people worldwide, especially in low-income countries. Credit: Zack Guido

The researchers draw on recent studies of the fungal disease, which has severely affected several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean over the past decade. They looked at how past outbreaks have been linked to poor crops and investment in coffee plantations, and how the impact of COVID-19 on labor, unemployment, stay-at-home and international border policies could affect investment in coffee plants and, in turn, create conditions . favorable for future shocks.

The researchers concluded that the socio-economic disruptions of COVID-19 are likely to drive the coffee industry into another severe production crisis.

“Our paper shows that coffee rust outbreaks are complex socioeconomic phenomena, and that controlling the disease also involves a mix of scientific and social solutions,” Rhiney said. “There is no ‘magic bullet’ that will just make this problem disappear. Tackling coffee leaf rust involves more than just getting outbreaks under control; it also includes protecting farmers’ livelihoods to build resilience against future shocks.”

The Rutgers-led research team drew on recent studies of the fungal disease, which has severely affected several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean over the past decade. Credit: Zach Guido

The researchers said the challenges of coffee leaf rust reflect a trend in disease-induced collapse in recent years in major global commodity markets such as bananas and cocoa, where large-scale farming of single crops and homogenization of plant traits make it easy for diseases to emerge. and spread.

They conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the interconnectedness of the global coffee system as both a vulnerability and a source of strength.

“The spread of COVID-19 and coffee leaf rust both reveal the systemic weaknesses and inequalities of our social and economic systems,” Rhiney said. According to the team, “So we can only have a healthy coffee system by building the well-being of the most vulnerable. It is critical to recognize the key roles of labor and healthy functioning ecosystems in producing and sustaining profit. This means challenging the status quo and current coffee value chains to better recognize the value produced by small-scale producers, while at the same time improving critical but underreported parts of the production process, such as human health, food security and sustainability. .”

Reference: “Epidemics and the Future of Coffee Production” by Kevon Rhiney, Zack Guido, Chris Knudson, Jacques Avelino, Christopher M. Bacon, Grégoire Leclerc, M. Catherine Aime and Daniel P. Bebber, June 28, 2021, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2023212118